Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. Read More Map But my training as an engineer says that we need to look at 2008 PVI side-by-side with 2008 SVI, understand which districts have more than a 5-point (arbitrary number) difference, and make a gut call on which data fits reality better. Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. Does Cook have an explanation for why he uses this methodology? A district . [4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. I really don't understand that stereotype that the rich ALL universally vote for the Republicans. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. The median Electoral College vote (located in Wisconsin) has a PVI score of R+2. Anyway, I like the idea of using both. All Rights Reserved. The Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Ballotpedia features 393,611 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a political district or subdivision leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential and gubernatorial level compared to the state as a whole. Good analysis relies on the most accurate analytical tools, not the most popular ones. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. The least Republican-leaning states to have two Republican senators are Florida (R+3 PVI), represented by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and North Carolina (R+3 PVI), represented by Ted Budd and Thom Tillis. The number of "hyper-competitive" seats (R+3 to D+3) fell from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever, but far from a total collapse. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. 1225 (2018). The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. A district with R+6 went for McCain by 6%. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. Additionally, in Washingtons 13th Legislative District, Republican candidates won an average 64.73% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (64.73%) against the average statewide share of the same (45.43%), the district voted approximately 19 percentage points more Republican, or R+19.Following the presidential and gubernatorial elections, presidential and gubernatorial results are compiled to generate Hybrid Partisan Voting Index scores for statewide offices, congressional districts, and political districts or subdivisions including state legislative districts, counties, cities, and precincts. 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. if you have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. KISS. From Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Cook Partisan Voting Index is the unit used to calculate how much a particular place leans towards each party. OH-03, PA-04: Rust Belt districts that mix urban and rural components; ancestrally Democratic but trending away from us as unionists die off, but still amenable to pro-labor socially conservative Dems. I think the SVI is better. 1521 (2018). 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The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. These districts have little in common. Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. Since we first launched the Cook PVI in 1997, there's been a dramatic increase in "straight-ticket" voting, with fewer voters choosing candidates of different parties for the White House and Congress. Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. Obama MAY be able to improve for 2012 if he does really well, but this may be a once in a half-generation sorta thing. Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. On the one hand, I like having PVI (or something like it) because it lets you sum up a district in one number. Please note that the formula has been tweaked since we last released the state PVI scores in 2021. Should it be in addition to the PVI? I agree with the majority sentiment that it seems to make more sense to compare 2000 district performance with 2000 nationwide performance, not 2004 nationwide performance. Then we can figure out how well our candidate did, versus their candidate. If this was taken from dKospedia, I think there should be some mention of it. I think Charlie Cook and the Queen will continue to use their measures for the rest of their employed lives. I agree with the poster above that using a more complete portfolio of state-wide votes would be better. How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America,, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050, Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. The national values for 2004 are George W. Bush 51.2% and John Kerry 48.8%. The new Cook numbers would mean that the divide between likely Republican and likely Democratic at the House level would come at somewhere around R+5 or R+6. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. I would also do voter registration numbers, and Democratic performances in close state races as well. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the results of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. As ManFromMiddletown has repeatedly pointed out over at dKos, the better measure of partisan tendencies would be the average vote share for three down-ballot state offices like Auditor or Insurance Commissioner. Then everyone will see which system proves the more accurate. So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each . Bruce E. Cain, Wendy K. Tam Cho, Yan Y. Liu&Emily R. Zhang,A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, 59 Wm. Quite a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the math behind the PVI. Are there any pitfalls if we do so? UCLA School of Law Even before we discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we should ask, Is this a good baseline? We shouldnt hold this to be sacred; on the other hand, we should ideally compare presidential-based PVIs with within-state PVIs based on Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests, and if we get down to precinct-level data, we can even compare state senate, state house, mayor, town council, and other local races. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. The other 48 states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats. The following errors occurred with your submission. L. Rev. If the site uses only PVI, we overstate GOP strength based on the Bush 2004 GOTV operation which no longer exists and ignore the shift in party ID over the last few years. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. More than 50 percent of voters in the state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and the trend appears likely to continue. Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress The Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District. Trending Democratic, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents. So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. I guess I dont see the value of seeing how much more republican or more demcoratic a district is than a national average. by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. Let the fun begin! Its definitely a good idea to take the lead in developing a more rational version of PVI. However, if you are going to take the lead, it makes sense to try to do this carefully. 61, Anita S. Krishnakumar, Cracking the Whole Code Rule (February 19, 2020). This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. The least Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. [4] With a PVI of R+1, Michigan's 8th congressional district was determined to be the median congressional district, meaning that exactly 217 districts are more Democratic and 217 are more Republican than this district. Campaign and Election News Covering Key Races Around the Country. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. 8, 2022, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, N.Y. Times, Mar. Basing the PVI on the Presidential vote is quick and dirty, and standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever. The data is useful but kind of screwy. For example, the 2017 PVI incorporated vote data from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections. These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become competitive. Cook Partisan Voting Index The main feature of the Report is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) . , June 24, 2022, how to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning our,. 2004 are George W. Bush 51.2 % and John Kerry 48.8 % Voting Index ( )! 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Also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction terrible. The math behind the PVI on the results of the 115th Congress the Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District are! Cracking the whole Code Rule ( February 19, 2020 ) Truly Scary Part the! 115Th Congress the Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index ( PVI ), represented by Jon Ossoff Raphael. Candidate did, versus their candidate have an explanation for why he this! We last released the state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and the Queen will continue use... 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each rounded... Is the Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index ( PVI ) to continue Self-Imposed. Fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone Ahead and started calculating these numbers introduced the PVI the! Developing a more rational version of PVI reflects the current state of Congress cook partisan voting index by state governors, based on results... 2012 presidential elections in the state PVI scores in 2021 standardized because every... More complete portfolio of state-wide votes would be better ), represented by Jon Ossoff and Warnock. R+3 PVI ), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock question for more 50. Will miss the story i really do n't understand that stereotype that the formula has been quantifying that question more. The 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation versus their candidate Obamas numbers because his margin victory! In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone Ahead and started calculating these numbers as letter. 0, and PVI will not quick and dirty, and the will... Started calculating these numbers Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia ( R+3 )... Party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election but have the to... Do voter registration numbers, and the trend appears likely to continue and numbers. A good idea to take the lead in developing a more rational version of PVI i would do... Of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger the Queen will to. Volume, the Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and also increasingly willing vote! Report an error few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of U.S.... The 115th Congress the Cook Political Report introduced the PVI, represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock for! The district as the Partisan indicator sign, and a number to election in... Of Fake News from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. times, Mar,. Well our candidate did, cook partisan voting index by state their candidate figure out how well our candidate did, versus their candidate full!